As anyone who's ever unsuccessfully queried an agent knows, publishing is a subjective business. Which is to say this: whether your book gets published depends not on the quality of the book (assuming a certain baseline professionalism) but on whether someone loves it. This is not a system you can game because love is irrational. You never know what's going to make someone respond to your book.
Which is what made the Lee & Low diversity survey so interesting. It revealed that the children's publishing industry consists overwhelmingly of straight white women. (The survey didn't cover agents, but I'm willing to bet that the numbers are similar.) Which simply means that if you're going to get a book for children or teens published in this country, you have to get at least one straight white woman to love it. Actually, one probably won't do since your editor will have to take it to a meeting and get other people to agree. So let's say two.
Now obviously straight white women are capable of loving books by all different kinds of people. But it's a reasonable fear that all those straight white women might be responding better to books that speak to their experience than books that don't. (Thought experiment if you're a straight white woman reading this and preparing to tee off on me in the comments: imagine you can't get published without someone who is transgender and Hispanic loving your book. How confident are you that your book is going to find love? Sure, we're all people, and we all experience the same kinds of emotions, but is the cultural context of your book just going to be too far from the experience of a transgender Hispanic editor to get it in their guts in a way they have to do in order to love it?)
The other day someone tweeted out a link to the Publisher's Weekly rights report, which tracks which books have been bought by which editors from which agents. It includes a headshot of the author. As I scrolled down, I thought, "Whoa! That's a lot of white women! Only 6 out of the 15 projects sold there don't involve a white woman!"
So I thought, let me look at some more of these and see if this is an anomaly. So I looked at every rights report from January 11, 2016 through April 25, 2016. I stopped at the end of April because I figured 15 weeks is a relatively decent sample size and, after all, nobody's paying me for this.
I counted the total number of projects and then counted the number of those projects that don't have a white woman creator. (So for picture books with an author and an illustrator, I counted them in the white woman category if either the author or the illustrator is a white woman even if the other member of the creative team isn't).
Major caveat: I don't know how people self-identify. I used a combination of people's names and headshots to determine whether they were white women. So I may have put a handful of people into the wrong category. And my study necessarily doesn't take into account any diversity in religious beliefs or sexual orientations. All the Rights Report posts are free and available to the public, so feel free to double-check my work.
Here's what I found.
From January through April of 2016, there were 330 book deals announced.
Of those 330 book deals, 99 did not involve white women.
In other words: 70% of deals in the first third of this year were for projects written and/or illustrated by a white woman.
Quick demographic check: in the USA, 77 percent of people identify as white. Assuming roughly half of those are women, that's 38.5%. So, demographically speaking, 38.5% of the population accounts for 70% of the children's publishing creators.
To put it another way: all men and all people of color, who represent 61.5% of the US population, are competing for just 30% of the spots on publishers' lists.
Now, let's be clear: it's really hard to get published. Most books that get written will never be published. If you're a white woman, it's still really hard to get published. It's just not as hard as it is for everybody else.